Citation
Abstract
This article investigates the implications of assurned powerlaw relationships among size, duration, and effort on the probability that a given software project will be completed within its estimated schedule and manpower resources. Specifically, software development tasks are treated as sample points in a probability space characterized by three random variables: size, duration, and resource expenditure. The completion confidence factor is then computed. The most astonishing conclusion is the low confidence factor of the average project, significantly less than 25%. This low confidence factor is the result of correlation of the project duration and work effort by a tradeoff relationship referred to as “Putnam’s software equation.
Details
- Volume
- 42-66
- Published
- December 15, 1981
- Pages
- 172–185
- File Size
- 965.9 KB